Crimeware is becoming a significant threat to most organizations. The capability and dependence on crimeware as an attack model is growing. With that in mind, here are 3 things that the folks at MSI think you will see in the next year or two with crimeware:
1. Cross platform crimeware will grow. Attackers will continue to embrace the model of malware that runs everywhere. They will focus on developing tools capable of attacking systems regardless of operating system and will likely include mobile device platform capability as well. They have embraced modern development capabilities and will extend their performance even further in the coming years.
2. Specialized crimeware will continue to evolve. Organized criminals will continue to develop malware capable of focusing in on specific business processes, keying on specific types of data and attacking specific hardware that they know are used in areas they wish to compromise. Whether their targets are general data, ATM hardware, check scanners or the smart grid, the days of crimeware being confined to desktop user PCs are over. The new breed knows how ACH works, can alter firmware and is capable of deeper comprise of specific processes.
3. Crimeware will get better at displacing the attack timeline. Many folks consider malware to be symetric with time. That is, they see it as being operational continually across the event horizon of a security incident. However, this is not always true and attackers are likely to grow their capability in this area in the coming years. Modern malware will be very capable of making its initial compromise, then sitting and waiting to avoid detection or waiting for the right vulnerability/exploit to be discovered, etc. The attacks from the next generations will have a much longer tail and will come in a series of waves and lulls, making detection more difficult and extending the time window of control for the attackers.
MSI believes that organizations need to be aware of these threats and ideas. They must get better at detecting initial stage compromises and begin to focus on closing the window of opportunity attackers now have, once they get a foothold (in most cases days-months). Prevention is becoming increasingly difficult, and while it should not be abandoned, more resources should be shifted into developing the capability to detect incidents and respond to them.